The BJP may decide who wins Telangana - BRS or Congress

The BJP is also holding the balance of power this time because the Muslim vote outside Hyderabad is seen to be shifting from the BRS to the Congress this time, unlike in 2018 when the minorities largely voted for the BRS (then TRS).

By TS Sudhir
Less than ten days to go for the assembly elections in Telangana, and all eyes are now on the BJP. The party polled 6.98 per cent of the vote in the 2018 assembly polls but jumped to 19.65 per cent four months later in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Its seat tally too shot up - from a single seat in the Telangana assembly to four Lok Sabha seats. It is certain that if the BJP gets into double digits this time, it could upset many calculations and pretty much decide who wins the contest. Political parties estimate that the BJP is in the contest seriously in about 30 seats out of 119 assembly seats. The BJP considers half of these constituencies as Category A seats where either the BRS or the Congress is not in the fight and the BJP has emerged as the principal adversary. These include seats like Mudhole, Nirmal, Koratla, Nizamabad Urban, Huzurabad, Goshamahal, Karimnagar. Most of these seats are in north Telangana districts and the BJP believes it stands a good chance of winning these seats. If nothing else, it will put up a very stiff fight.
There are another 15 in Category B which are triangular fights where the BJP is giving a good fight to the BRS and the Congress. This list includes seats like Musheerabad in Hyderabad and Kamareddy where the BJP candidate Venkataramana Reddy is being pitched as a local against `outsiders' chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao of BRS and PCC president Revanth Reddy of the Congress. The remaining 89 seats are seen as a straight fight between the BRS and the Congress, where the BJP or its ally, the Jana Sena, is present only to mark attendance on the EVM.
This is the reason the BJP campaign strategy is to sharply zoom in on these specific seats. The idea is not to spread itself thin but to make the most of the remaining days of power play. It is focusing all its energies on the seats where it thinks it has a reasonable chance of either winning or influencing the contest to get to a close second position. The belief in the party is that if it can win around 15 seats, it can either be kingmaker or a powerful opposition party, enabling it to be in a good position for 2024. At an internal meeting of the BJP three months ago, senior leader BL Santosh is reported to have predicted that the BJP would be in a position of power in Telangana. The party is also focusing on the seats in Hyderabad, hoping to build on its strength of 48 corporators in the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation. This is the reason why Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have addressed many public meetings in the state capital. There is also targeted campaigning. For example, keeping in mind the Tamilian population in a constituency like Malkajgiri, star campaigners like Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, BJP Tamil Nadu president K Annamalai and actor-politician Khushbu are making their presence felt. It is not just the BJP that is looking at these seats. The BRS is looking at them very closely too, because an upswing in the BJP vote would cut into the anti-incumbency vote and thereby directly benefit the ruling party.The BJP lost its deposit in close to 100 seats in 2018. The estimate is that it won't do as badly this time round. The reason for that is the decision to field three of its four sitting MPs. What it has done is to influence all the seven segments under their Lok Sabha constituency. For example, Dharmapuri Arvind who is MP from Nizamabad is contesting from Koratla which is one of the assembly seats in his Lok Sabha constituency. His presence is having a positive impact on the other six seats, like Jagtial and Nizamabad Urban. The same goes for Karimnagar MP Bandi Sanjay who is contesting from Karimnagar assembly seat.
The BJP's promise to appoint a BC chief minister has not achieved the traction it expected to primarily because the caste group is not a homogeneous category. The support from the Madiga group among SCs may be significantly substantial, though its ability to swing the election in the BJP's favour is still an open question.
The BJP is also holding the balance of power this time because the Muslim vote outside Hyderabad is seen to be shifting from the BRS to the Congress this time, unlike in 2018 when the minorities largely voted for the BRS (then TRS). One reason also is that the BRS has given only 3 tickets to Muslims this time compared to five from the Congress. All these factors would reduce the gap between the Congress and the BRS, making the BJP's performance the tilting factor.