Erdogan's Gamble: Why Siding With Pakistan Is A Losing Bet Against Modi’s India

By : Sohil Sinha
The geopolitical landscape is witnessing increasing strain between India and Turkey, driven by Ankara’s persistent alignment with Pakistan. While historical ties once facilitated cooperation, Turkey’s vocal support for Islamabad, coupled with the use of Turkish drones by Pakistan in cross-border attacks, has severely deteriorated bilateral relations.
Ankara’s strategy, aimed at bolstering its influence in the Islamic world, is an ill-advised gamble. Continued economic engagement with India would be far more advantageous than its current political posturing. However, Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems bent on destroying ties, especially those hard-won and easily lost.Ankara’s aligned stance and military complicity
Erdogan has unequivocally sided with Pakistan, particularly after India’s counter-terror action, Operation Sindoor. Ankara openly condemned New Delhi’s military actions, labelling them provocative and a potential trigger for wider conflict.
This stance is not new; Turkey has consistently supported Pakistan’s position on Kashmir, with Erdogan affirming solidarity with the “Kashmiri brothers" in February 2025 and seeking to raise the issue globally.
Such diplomatic assertiveness has emboldened Pakistan, allowing it to circumvent international scrutiny of its terror-sponsoring activities. Turkey’s support has also led Pakistan to raise the Kashmir issue unnecessarily in forums such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, albeit unsuccessfully.
Furthermore, this support has a military dimension. Turkish C-130 Hercules transport planes deliver military cargo to Pakistan, alongside the docking of Turkish naval vessels in Karachi. More critically, preliminary findings identified Turkish-manufactured Asisguard Songar models, or similar Turkish-origin drones, as those used by Pakistan in cross-border strikes during heightened tensions.
Direct military support, along with diplomatic backing, demonstrates the depth of this partnership. Consequently, Turkey has become Pakistan’s second-largest arms supplier after China, marked by collaborative military projects and joint exercises.
India’s strategic recalibration and countermeasures
India has not remained passive. New Delhi has embarked on a strategic recalibration, deepening ties with countries that are either Ankara’s regional rivals or those with which it has strained relations. This includes strengthening defence and intelligence-sharing mechanisms with nations like Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and France.
Its proactive policy in West Asia, seeking robust strategic ties with key Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) players such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, also serves as a counterbalance to Turkish expansionism and its aspirations for leadership in the Islamic world.
Furthermore, India views the Turkey-Pakistan axis not merely as a military threat but also as a challenge in narrative warfare and diplomatic influence. Both Ankara and Islamabad are investing in state-backed media outlets and social media campaigns to internationalise issues that India considers internal, specifically Kashmir.
In response, India is enhancing its indigenous defence capabilities under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, aiming for strategic autonomy and reducing vulnerabilities to shifting geopolitical allegiances. The growing call within India for a boycott of Turkish goods and tourism reflects public anger and provides a direct economic lever against Turkey’s perceived support for terrorism.
The diminishing economic returns for Ankara
Critically, Turkey’s political alignment with Pakistan contrasts sharply with its economic interests with India. Data from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) reveals that India has consistently maintained a significant trade surplus with Turkey.
In FY22-23, India’s trade surplus with Turkey stood at $5.4 billion, which, while still substantial, reduced to $2.9 billion in FY23-24. From April to February in FY24-25, exports to Turkey were $5.2 billion, and imports stood at $2.84 billion, a surplus of approximately $2.7 billion—an economic relationship heavily skewed against Ankara.
The economic repercussions of Turkey’s political choices are becoming increasingly evident. India’s overall merchandise trade with Turkey contracted to approximately 63% of FY22-23 levels by FY24-25. This decline, predating the most recent surge in tensions, reflects Turkey’s souring relations with India amid Ankara’s outbursts on Kashmir.

Following widespread calls across India for a boycott of Turkish goods and tourism, major travel companies such as EaseMyTrip and Ixigo have advised against or suspended bookings to Turkey. Cleartrip reported a 260% rise in cancellations to Turkey within a single week.

While India’s imports from Turkey—including mineral oil, gold, and marble—represent a minuscule portion of its total inbound shipments, the overall trade volume, particularly India’s substantial exports of mineral fuels, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, demonstrates that continued economic ties are far more beneficial to Turkey than its current confrontational political alignment.

Conclusion
Erdogan’s gamble of siding with Pakistan against India is fundamentally flawed. While it may serve his domestic political agenda and aspirations for regional leadership, it comes at a significant cost to Turkey’s economic interests.