When The Dragon Doesn’t Roar: Why Pakistan Cannot Count On China In A Hot War

In the icy shadows of the Himalayas, where guns have fallen silent only to speak again, Pakistan’s military establishment seems to have forgotten an age-old truth — wars are not won by illusions. With the Pahalgam terror attack once again attempting to provoke the Indian state into retaliation, Pakistan’s assumption that China will leap to its defence in a hot war is not just naive — it’s suicidal. General Asim Munir, with this calculated act of terror in Pahalgam, may have fired the first shot not just at India — but at the foot of his own army’s strategic posture. The Faulty Premise: ‘China Will Save Us’ or decades, Pakistan has leaned on China as a strategic counterweight to India. Infrastructure investments under CPEC, shared antagonism toward New Delhi, and defence cooperation gave the Pakistani establishment a false sense of security. But when it comes to actual war, China’s silence may be louder than its slogans. 1. Economic Realpolitik Trumps Brotherhood India-China bilateral trade in 2023 stood at over $136 billion. Despite skirmishes in Galwan, both sides kept economic engines running. This isn’t just pragmatism —it’s survival. China has built its entire global posture on economic supremacy. Any disruption to India-China trade routes — especially during a war where Pakistan is the provocateur — would harm China’s strategic interests more than help Pakistan’s. 2. China’s New Doctrine: Wars are Bad for Business Post-COVID, Beijing has become increasingly inward-looking. Its focus is on stabilising internal dissent, reviving the slowing economy, and expanding soft power via trade. Military adventurism, especially on behalf of a volatile and diplomatically isolated client like Pakistan, would be a strategic own-goal. In fact, if India retaliates to another Pahalgam-style attack, China’s best interest lies in playing the mediator, not the military ally. It wants to keep its investments in both countries safe, not choose sides. Putin: The Unexpected Kingmaker in South Asia Vladimir Putin’s Russia has historically enjoyed good relations with India, but today, the relationship is not just good, it’s strategic. 1. The India-Russia Defence Umbrella From S-400 systems to naval cooperation and BrahMos, Russia has directly contributed to India’s warfighting capability. Moscow may be close to Beijing, but its ties with New Delhi are time-tested and steeped in mutual respect. In contrast, Pakistan remains on the periphery of Russian strategic calculus.2. Putin’s Pivot to India: A Sanctions Workaround As Western sanctions bite, Russia needs India more than ever, for oil exports, rupee-ruble trade corridors, and alternative tech partnerships. If China attempts to supply Pakistan in wartime, Russia’s logistical chokehold over Central Asia and key transport routes could be used to delay or deny supplies. Putin doesn’t need to make bold declarations; he can quietly slow down Chinese logistical support, because he knows who his more reliable partner is. The Ill-Timed Blunder: Munir’s Misfire at Pahalgam The Pahalgam attack wasn’t just an act of terror; it was a premature escalation by Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir. The timing and optics reveal more than Islamabad intended. 1. Pakistan Army is Logistically Unprepared With inflation crossing 40 per cent, a tanking rupee, and an IMF leash tighter than ever, Pakistan’s military readiness is at an all-time low. Fuel is rationed, spare parts are in short supply, and even border outposts have reported electricity cuts. In this scenario, triggering a potential Indian military response, especially under a government seeking re-election, was reckless at best. 2. Domestic Fragility Exposed The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is resurgent. Baloch insurgency is gathering steam. Gilgit-Baltistan is seeing murmurs of rebellion. Munir is fighting fires at home and playing with matches abroad. The Pahalgam provocation was meant to distract from this internal chaos, but it may just bring the war home. Global Optics: Terrorism vs. Territorial Integrity India today is not the India of Kargil or even Balakot. It is a rising global power with partnerships in QUAD, a favourable perception in the West, and a growing role in shaping Indo-Pacific security. The world knows the difference between a sovereign state retaliating against terror and a rogue military spilling blood across borders. 1. No Appetite For Terror Apologists Pakistan’s credibility is in tatters. FATF may have temporarily removed them from the Grey List, but every new attack like Pahalgam reinforces the perception that Rawalpindi runs with the terrorists and guns for peace. India, meanwhile, has invested deeply in multilateral forums and global narratives. Its voice today is not just heard—it is believed. 2. Arab World No Longer Blindly Loyal Saudi Arabia and UAE, once Islamabad’s financial safety nets, have reoriented their diplomacy towards India. From strategic oil reserves to defence tech, India’s clout in the Middle East now exceeds Pakistan’s Islamic rhetoric. The OIC’s lukewarm responses to Kashmir resolutions are proof. The Supply Chain Gamble: China Can’t Afford Disruption If China attempts to arm Pakistan during war, it exposes its supply chains to Indian interdiction. Indian Navy’s dominance in the Indian Ocean can choke CPEC lifelines and maritime routes from the Gulf to Gwadar. 1. Sea Denial is India’s Trump Card With the INS Vikrant commissioned and a growing submarine fleet, India controls chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca and the Gulf of Aden far more decisively than China does. Beijing cannot afford another bottleneck — especially not in waters where India is a natural gatekeeper. 2. From Galwan to Galore: India Won’t Fight China’s War New Delhi has proven it can hold the Line of Actual Control (LAC) without spiraling into full-scale war. Galwan was a message: “You try something, we’ll respond — but we won’t start what we can finish later." In a hypothetical India-Pakistan conflict, China’s interests lie in containment, not escalation. The Munir Doctrine: Provocation Without Strategy Munir’s misstep lies not in his provocation, but in his presumption. He assumed that India would hesitate, that China would back him, and that the West would intervene with diplomatic platitudes. Instead, he has created a triad of problems: India’s retaliation will be swift and public China will stay neutral or even passive Global sympathy will flow toward India, not Pakistan A war at this point would leave Pakistan isolated, economically shattered, and diplomatically cornered. Munir may have wanted to look strong, but in trying to provoke a stronger enemy, he exposed his own army’s hollow core. The Outcome: Pakistan is Alone, Unready, and Out of Time If Pakistan dares escalate into hot war, here’s what will likely happen: India will strike decisively, leveraging Rafales, Pinaka rockets, BrahMos, and ISR superiority. China will issue vague statements, but stop short of intervention—protecting its trade interests with India.Russia will remain neutral publicly, but subtly delay Chinese support via Central Asian routes. The West will back India, citing the right to self-defense and Pakistan’s history of harboring terrorists. Middle Eastern powers will stay silent, focused on trade and investments with India. And Pakistan? It will be left fighting a war with slogans, outdated weaponry, and a delusion of Chinese cavalry that never arrives. Conclusion China may loan Pakistan money, but it won’t lend it war. Russia may sell arms, but it won’t sabotage ties with India. And Munir may provoke terror, but he won’t provoke sympathy. Pahalgam wasn’t a show of strength, it was a signal of desperation.And in this chess game of geopolitics, Pakistan just made its move too soon, with no backup, no queen, and no endgame.